A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
